At all levels of American government, voters were asked to weigh in on cannabis policy in last week’s election. On this episode of Policy Outsider, Rockefeller Institute of Government Director of Operations and Fellow Heather Trela breaks down the results of state ballot initiatives to legalize cannabis, local government efforts to decriminalize possession, and what a Trump presidency might mean for federal cannabis policy.
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Joel Tirado 00:00
Welcome to Policy Outsider presented by the Rockefeller Institute of Government. I’m Joel Tirado. At all levels of American government, voters were asked to weigh in on cannabis policy in last week’s election. On today’s show, Rockefeller Institute of Government Director of Operations and Fellow Heather Trela breaks down the results of state ballot initiatives to legalize cannabis, local government efforts to decriminalize possession, and what a Trump presidency might mean for federal cannabis policy. That conversation is up next.
Joel Tirado 00:42
Heather, welcome back to policy outsider.
Heather Trela 00:57
Happy to be here, Joel,
Joel Tirado 00:58
as we’ve done in the past, we’re turning to you for updates on cannabis policy in the US. So you wrote a blog in mid October that was looking forward at the time, at the issues voters would be weighing in on at the federal, state and local level in the November 5 election. That election has come and gone, so I wanted to turn back and look at the results of that election on the different cannabis policy issues. So let’s go level by level, starting with the federal government, top to bottom, what was at stake in the presidential election for marijuana policy, and then what can we expect from a second Trump administration?
Heather Trela 01:46
Sure so stated policies, both candidates seem to be in favor of marijuana legalization, but the main difference was on what level. So vice president Harris had supported federal legalization, and if she was elected, and would have pushed to try to make a federal action for that, whereas former President Trump had been pushing for, or indicating that he would be in favor of more of a states rights approach, which would mean probably less involvement by the federal government in blocking that and allowing the states to legalize as They will. That would be a slight departure from the first Trump administration. I don’t think Trump was particularly vocal on the topic, but his first attorney general, Jeff Sessions was and was extremely hostile to marijuana legalization, and so used the Department of Justice to overturn some memos and guidance that made it easier and gave some protections to states that wanted to legalize. And so I don’t see that kind of vein coming in the second administration. So it may just be kind of a status quo under the Trump administration as to what we currently
Joel Tirado 02:53
have, and what we currently have is just a patchwork of states legalizing medical marijuana, often first and then following that up with recreational Yes, very
Heather Trela 03:04
piecemeal approach, some legislatively, some by ballot measure. I think that’s what we’re going to continue to see going
Joel Tirado 03:10
forward. Now the there is this rescheduling that’s happening. What do we know about how Trump’s election might affect that he
Heather Trela 03:22
was supportive of this effort, at least that’s what he officially stated. So that has been pushed until the hearing on that has been pushed until probably January, February of 2025, we’ll have a better idea after that, I think, how we’re going to progress. But I don’t see his administration necessarily being a roadblock to descheduling based on what they’ve said so far, or rescheduling. Sorry, not descheduling.
Joel Tirado 03:44
Got it so concerning state level issues. I’m just going to read just a couple sentences from your piece. So you said six states this election day will ask voters for their input on marijuana policy via citizen initiated ballot measures. Four of those states will allow voters to decide whether to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana, while one state looks to expand its current medical marijuana program and another state looks to address labor issues within the industry. So what were the outcomes of these ballot measures? Maybe we can start with the four that were deciding whether to legalize recreational or medical Sure, yeah,
Heather Trela 04:27
it was not a good night for marijuana legalization this election day of the four states that were looking to legalize, only one did, that was Nebraska. They legalized medical marijuana. They had two initiatives on the pallet, and both passed pretty significantly, about 70% 65% one protected medical users, and one created a system to regulate marijuana, trying to avoid the dreaded, more than one subject problem on a ballot initiative Florida. Had a majority in favor. They came in about 55% in favor. But in Florida, they’ve changed what qualifies, what threshold needs to be met for a ballot initiative to pass, and these have to cross 60% so they failed in that regard. South Dakota and North Dakota. This was their third time out on both trying to legalize recreational marijuana, and they both went down. What I think is particularly interesting is that South Dakota has this has gone to the polls three times, 2020, or, sorry, 2020, 2022, and 2024 and it has decreased in support each time. South Dakota originally did pass that was thrown out by the courts. In 2022 went to the polls, 47% supporting, and in 2024 we only came in at 44 and a half percent. So we’re seeing a dwindling of support in South Dakota. North Dakota, you’re seeing the opposite. You’re seeing a little bit of a tick up, but still an upward battle in both of those states. Takeaways from this is that we don’t see the expansion into regions of the United States that where marijuana has not been prevalent. So Florida were in the first state of the South to legalize recreational marijuana. North and South Dakota would have been kind of key to expanding to the Midwest, that section of the Midwest, Central, new central United States. So you’re seeing this is kind of hitting a wall. I think with marijuana expansion, it’s getting a little trickier for states to pass, and
Joel Tirado 06:29
South Dakota’s decreasing support runs counter to overall support in the US right on this, on this issue, and I know that I’ve heard you say before, it’s something like north of 70%
Heather Trela 06:43
I think, yeah, it’s in the 70s for legalization. So yeah, South Dakota, they’ve just, they’ve dropped from a high of 54% to now 44% so 10 percentage points have changed in four years. It’s a big swing. Yeah,
Joel Tirado 06:58
very interesting. Okay, so what was the state that was looking to expand its medical marijuana? That
Heather Trela 07:05
was Arkansas, and while that was on the ballot, that got thrown out by a court decision right before election day. So while people voted, cast their ballots for that, this will not be counted. I probably should go back to Nebraska as well. While that did pass, that is also facing legal challenges, so it is possible that this will also be thrown out, even though it passed with overwhelming support in Nebraska.
Joel Tirado 07:28
Yeah, and speaking with you about these issues over the years, it’s been it’s been astonishing to me how many ballot measures are thrown out on various technicalities. So yes, we’ll keep an eye on what happens with Nebraska, and then what were the labor issues, and where was that taking place? Yeah,
Heather Trela 07:49
that was in Oregon, and that was simply, it was a measure that would make marijuana businesses basically agree not to discourage unionization in their companies, so not impacting collective bargaining, etc. This is not unusual, that’s a lot of states have written this into that, like New York wrote this into their marijuana law, but the Oregon was kind of one of the early adopters, so they’re coming back around to make sure that unions can be present and active if chosen by the workers in marijuana.
Joel Tirado 08:27
Okay, so some of the later states have taken that initiative to say, hey, you know cannabis businesses, you can’t prevent collective bargaining from
Heather Trela 08:37
happening. Yeah. I mean, a lot of the early adopters are coming back around on a lot of things. Colorado came back around on social equity and diversity initiatives. So, you know, we know better as this plays out. So some states have been like, we should go back and try to address some of the things we didn’t think about when we first legalized 10 years ago. So that
Joel Tirado 08:55
sort of cues up. One of the things that I wanted to talk about state government is where a lot of the interesting action has been for cannabis policy for quite some time now. So what do you expect to see over the next couple of years with state policy overall?
Heather Trela 09:14
Yeah, I think advocates will keep trying to pass. It’s going to have be, I think, a little more difficult. As I said, we’ve run into some trickier states that are not as open to legalization. New Hampshire, for example, almost legalized this year. They were pretty close legislatively, but on election day, they voted in an anti marijuana governor and a Republican, I think, controlled legislature. So that’s probably going to be more difficult going forward. You know, Hawaii has been interested in this. I think they’ll keep trying, but I think it’s going to be much more incremental going forward, as the political conditions and this also may not be a priority for some people, given some of the other. Issues that might be at stake in the next few years.
Joel Tirado 10:04
Finally, at the local level, voters in different municipalities across the country were asked to decide whether to opt in or out of the marijuana business and whether to decriminalize marijuana in their jurisdiction. So these are both things that you’ve written out, written about and tracked the marijuana opt out tracker for New York State was a very helpful tool for keeping track of the what was it of 1500 plus municipalities, too many, very, very many municipalities. So you know, but other states have an opt in and opt out clause, I guess you would say. So what anything of note there?
Heather Trela 10:50
Yeah, the most significant place that was dealing with this was Kentucky. Kentucky has legalized medical marijuana, and there was 106 cities or counties that had ballot measures about whether or not to opt into the medical marijuana market, and all 106 passed. So it was a big night for marijuana on the local level. Colorado Springs also had an initiative where they actually passed a counter active balance, they both passed a ballot measure that would ban recreational retail in the city, as well as passing a measure that would allow medical marijuana facilities to apply to sell recreational so that’s going to have to go to a lawsuit to figure out how that’s going to shake out, because you can’t do both, yeah, and on the decriminalization front, also a big night in Texas. There was three cities, Dallas, bastrup and Lockhart, and all three passed decriminalization. Texas has been interesting to watch as state government has tried to hinder the ability of their cities to do this, to decriminalize. There’s been a number of lawsuits so far the cities have won. Those that have been settled. There are, I think, two or three still active from last election, but at least take some criminal penalties off the table for people who use or possess marijuana and makes it a lower priority for the local police departments.
Joel Tirado 12:24
Okay? And there was also another issue I remember reading about in Colorado. It was a tax issue Littleton, Colorado.
Heather Trela 12:33
Yeah, it was in Littleton, and it looks like they the residents there narrowly supported an increase in the tax on recreational marijuana from 3% to 7% to add a little more money to their coffers.
Joel Tirado 12:46
You know, this is federal, state, local, local government. You give us a little preview, sort of what you’re thinking about for state government over the next couple years. Any other thing that you’re keeping your eye on with cannabis policy? You know, as we look ahead to four years of Trump administration,
Heather Trela 13:05
I think it’ll be interesting to see if you know, the big issue on the federal level has always been the banking bill, whether or not that gets any traction this time around, we’ve, you know, seeing a change in control of the Senate, potentially A change in control of the House or of unified government, but that’s always been kind of a big move that was very beneficial to the marijuana industry. I think you’re going to see States continuing to refine the marijuana programs, as well as be see what how the markets expand. And contrast, we see, we’re seeing some marijuana businesses closing in states as they go over saturate. So there may be some constriction in the state markets as you find that kind of sweet spot for where you meet demand. And I think you’re going to see activists having to think about how to use different strategies going forward. Ballot measures may not be the way forward. In some states, they may want to try to work on working on the legislators who can pass this legislatively, to see if that is an avenue as well. You know, Florida, I’m guessing we’ll try again, because it was so close. But other states might be time to regroup.
Joel Tirado 14:22
Well, great Heather. Thanks for coming on, for giving us this update, and we’ll, you know, look forward to the next time that we can break down the changes in cannabis policy
Heather Trela 14:32
in the US. Always good to talk to you. Joel,
Joel Tirado 14:38
Thanks again to Rockefeller Institute Director of Operations and Fellow Heather Trela for joining us on the show to discuss the latest developments in cannabis policy. You can read her recent blog, “Buds on the Ballot—Marijuana and the 2024 Election” on the Institute website. A link is in the episode description. Check out the “In the Weeds” page for all of our cannabis policy research. If you liked this episode, please rate, subscribe, and share. It will help others find the podcast and help us deliver the latest in public policy research. All of our episodes are available for free wherever you stream your podcasts and transcripts are available on our website. I’m Joel Tirado; until next time.
Joel Tirado 15:24
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